Thanks for these sensible points, John. My point was not to focus exclusively on one industry, but rather to say that the impact will be felt across all industries; as the graph shows, the US remains South Africa's second-largest export market. Some industries will surely be more affected than others. I would argue that an 8% shock to an industry that employs 140 000 people is pretty significant.
I also don't touch on imports into South Africa, something that I did study many years ago. If I remember correctly, the imports of cheap chicken really helped to alleviate protein shortages for the very poor, not a negligible benefit of open borders.
Great post Johan. You can add to your arguments what the research shows about exporter firms - they are more productive, the pay better wages etc.
Indeed, thanks Waldo.
Thanks for these sensible points, John. My point was not to focus exclusively on one industry, but rather to say that the impact will be felt across all industries; as the graph shows, the US remains South Africa's second-largest export market. Some industries will surely be more affected than others. I would argue that an 8% shock to an industry that employs 140 000 people is pretty significant.
I also don't touch on imports into South Africa, something that I did study many years ago. If I remember correctly, the imports of cheap chicken really helped to alleviate protein shortages for the very poor, not a negligible benefit of open borders.