3. He fails to mention that AGOA (as it was originally negotiated) was due to expire in 2015, but was extended a further 10 years to 2025 by Obama, in return for us reducing / eliminating duties on US chicken imports. 49% percent of our chicken imports now come from the USA, and they have been accused of dumping. https://www.freightnews.co.za/article/us-allowed-dump-more-chicken-south-africa
So, to sum it up,
- SA Vehicle exports to the US are insignificant (3%)
- SA Citrus exports to the US are almost insignificant. (8%, and that includes Canada)
- SA Chicken exports from the US are extremely significant, and have damaged our local poultry industry. (49% of imports)
He also mentioned that the US has a competitive advantage at "manufacturing smartphones". That would be China.
Thanks for these sensible points, John. My point was not to focus exclusively on one industry, but rather to say that the impact will be felt across all industries; as the graph shows, the US remains South Africa's second-largest export market. Some industries will surely be more affected than others. I would argue that an 8% shock to an industry that employs 140 000 people is pretty significant.
I also don't touch on imports into South Africa, something that I did study many years ago. If I remember correctly, the imports of cheap chicken really helped to alleviate protein shortages for the very poor, not a negligible benefit of open borders.
I feel the need to point out some facts regarding the above.
1. The USA is not one of our top 5 vehicle export destinations. See https://www.carmag.co.za/news/sa-car-industrys-top-export-destinations/. It is after Belgium on that list, with around 3% of our export volumes.
2. He extensively mentions citrus. It seems we only export 8% of our citrus to North America. Also bear in mind the US (Florida) is a major citrus producing region, so they really don't want our naartjies. https://www.agbiz.co.za/uploads/documents/library/general-interest/13_10-tinashe-on-citrus-exports.pdf
3. He fails to mention that AGOA (as it was originally negotiated) was due to expire in 2015, but was extended a further 10 years to 2025 by Obama, in return for us reducing / eliminating duties on US chicken imports. 49% percent of our chicken imports now come from the USA, and they have been accused of dumping. https://www.freightnews.co.za/article/us-allowed-dump-more-chicken-south-africa
So, to sum it up,
- SA Vehicle exports to the US are insignificant (3%)
- SA Citrus exports to the US are almost insignificant. (8%, and that includes Canada)
- SA Chicken exports from the US are extremely significant, and have damaged our local poultry industry. (49% of imports)
He also mentioned that the US has a competitive advantage at "manufacturing smartphones". That would be China.
Thanks for these sensible points, John. My point was not to focus exclusively on one industry, but rather to say that the impact will be felt across all industries; as the graph shows, the US remains South Africa's second-largest export market. Some industries will surely be more affected than others. I would argue that an 8% shock to an industry that employs 140 000 people is pretty significant.
I also don't touch on imports into South Africa, something that I did study many years ago. If I remember correctly, the imports of cheap chicken really helped to alleviate protein shortages for the very poor, not a negligible benefit of open borders.
Great post Johan. You can add to your arguments what the research shows about exporter firms - they are more productive, the pay better wages etc.
Indeed, thanks Waldo.