While not being South African, I wish the country only the best. South Africa stands out on the continent with institutions that, at least for now, seem relatively stable. The fact that the nation mostly needs reforms to these systems, instead of full-on overhauls like other African countries, is a gift on its own
.
The South African government needs to leverage the few advantages the nation has and implement meaningful policy, not just political talking points — real change that will ensure every South African is housed, well-fed, and has work. No political pandering or ideological virtue signalling, just pragmatic solutions to the myriad of problems that plague the country.
Hopefully, some higher-ups read this and implement the change needed. A strong South Africa is a win for Africa. I can only wish the best for this national experiment in the coming decades.
Very good article, thank you. It does not address the rampant crime in this country though. Unfortunately, due to political incarcerations back in the day, political prisoners were looked after by gangsters in the prison system, which has led to them owing a whole lot to orgainsed crime in this country.
This is quite clear - the political will to prosecute organised crime does not exist, since they are two sides of the same coin.
This was clearly demonstrated by Jacob Zuma and his Bell Pottinger arranged 'white monopoly capital' meme, which divided the country along racial fissures, which are still maintained by the ANC and the EFF to this day.
A country can simply not move forward if 85 people are murdered every day, and only 1 out of 10 of these murders are solved.
Additionally, there are no prosecutions of known criminals in the government, even if these ridiculously expensive commissions shed light on the most grotesque conduct when it comes to managing energy, water and related infrastructure projects in this country.
I do agree with the political inaction as described in this article, due to the slow motion decline of this country, which also certainly is applicable to the number one problem: crime in all strata of South Africa, but especially in the leaders and their minders.
Another critical pillar would be education, and if one were to look at the comparison to Poland, the old Eastern block countries had a decent enough education system.
In this regard successive ideological inspired governments in South Africa, have had a severe negative impact.
Educated people mean a more skilled workforce, which is in turn is more adaptable to a changing economic landscape.
Ek vind ooreenkomste met Dr. Frans Cronje se analises. Dit dui daarop dat twee van ons beste ekonomiese analiste, onafhanklik tot gevolgtrekkings kom wat in my opinie baie soortgelyk is. Dit verleen nóg meer geloofwaardigheid aan wat díé twee groot intellektueles sê oor ons huidige, ongewensde situasie en wat dit kán wees. Soms wens ek die groot krisis wil kom: nie net trillings nie, maar die werklike aardbewing. Dis tragies dat mens soms daarvoor wil wens, maar Johan se voorbeelde vanuit ander lande se ervarings dui daarop dat groot krisisse soms voordelige gevolge kan hê nadat die stof gaan lê het en NOODGEWONGE aanpassings onvermydelik raak. Dit skud leierskap wakker en dwing hulle uit hul gemaksones uit, om dieselfde as Johan te sê, maar in ander woorde. Frans Cronje wys ook daarop dat selfs relatief geringe hervormings om ekonomies groei te versnel, die ANC opsigself van groterwordende irrelevansie kan red! Verlies aan steun kan omgekeer word.
Waarlik goeie insig in die artikel: "Die prys is groei – volgehoue, breë groei wat werk skep en lewenstandaarde verhoog. Alles anders is instrumenteel."
Very good piece, Johan. Sequencing reform is critical when you don't have a lot of political capital. I am pretty sure this is the logic behind Operation Vulindlela, though perhaps not expicitly articulated. Credibility is key, and it rests on the success of the current national GNU. I hope the GNU builds enough momentum to continue into the next national goverment. BTW, I agree with the comment that reducing crime is critical to credibility, and that the restoration/strengthening of the NPA is not sufficient, though it is necessary.
Johan Fourie's article "Mind the Gap" touched me deeply. I would like to refer the readers to a booklet "International Association for Cognitive Development in Southern Africe - 21 years" (for an electronic copy of this booklet refer to https://share.google/tDyEulp4FFInnq5OP or just search for the booklet's title on Google). The lead article was written by Professor W. L. Rautenbach, a nuclear scientist at the University of Stellenbosch between 1972 & 1990s. Apart from nuclear science he started studying rapid development in countries like Israel & Taiwan. He found that education is a key factor to development. In the booklet Professor Rautenbach gave a concise summary of his work. Sadly our South African government did not appreciate this work. A working model was set up by him with help from the relevant industries at the Vaal Career College in the 1990s. Unfortunately it ended up being rejected & ended after 4 successful years. I hope this article by W.L. Rautenbach confirms Johan Fourie's conclusion on development.
Mrs. J. Rautenbach, wife of the deceased W.L. Rautenbach.
> The second theory is status-quo bias, from Raquel Fernandez and Dani Rodrik. Even when reform would benefit most people, rational uncertainty about who specifically will gain and who will lose produces collective resistance. People who might benefit from trade liberalisation or deregulation cannot be sure they will be among the winners, so they oppose the change. The result is paralysis even when the status quo is terrible.
Woulnd't this predict that BOTH people will mistakenly (ex ante) oppose reforms that benefit them AND mistakenly support ones that don't? On net it would seem to be a wash. An asymmetry could be present if there are people likely to benefit, but who don't have input, such as people in the future.
Copper alone is 50%+ of Chile's exports, and 10-15% of GDP (direct and indirect). Per capita copper export earnings alone are $3000 per person. Argentina's total mineral exports (gold, silver, lithium, etc) are $5-8 billion which comes out to ~$110-$170 per person. This is enough to explain the difference between the two, who by the way are not so different, they have very similar HDI scores.
If there is something to be learned by making such simplistic comparisons to Chile and Argentina, might I suggest an alternative for South Africa? Kick out undocumented immigrants, stop all immigration, and enforce a draconian 1-child policy so that South Africa's ample mineral resource profits can be split between fewer people. Neighboring Botswana has (or at least had) outperformed the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa because of a low population relative to high mineral resource exports (diamonds in their case.)
Without a steady supply of talented and energetic black candidates for success, nothing will happen. You can't just check a couple of boxes; you need to have real and significant talent or nothing will ever grow. Businesses don't succeed on equal opportunity criteria. They succeed on innovative ways of providing value to customers.
To me, that is the real problem that South Africa deals with. People expect success with mediocrity wielded by the person with the right skin color. But you can't fool Mother Nature.
Amazing article, Dr Fourie.
While not being South African, I wish the country only the best. South Africa stands out on the continent with institutions that, at least for now, seem relatively stable. The fact that the nation mostly needs reforms to these systems, instead of full-on overhauls like other African countries, is a gift on its own
.
The South African government needs to leverage the few advantages the nation has and implement meaningful policy, not just political talking points — real change that will ensure every South African is housed, well-fed, and has work. No political pandering or ideological virtue signalling, just pragmatic solutions to the myriad of problems that plague the country.
Hopefully, some higher-ups read this and implement the change needed. A strong South Africa is a win for Africa. I can only wish the best for this national experiment in the coming decades.
Thank you for the lovely message, Graywon. Let's hope!
Very good article, thank you. It does not address the rampant crime in this country though. Unfortunately, due to political incarcerations back in the day, political prisoners were looked after by gangsters in the prison system, which has led to them owing a whole lot to orgainsed crime in this country.
This is quite clear - the political will to prosecute organised crime does not exist, since they are two sides of the same coin.
This was clearly demonstrated by Jacob Zuma and his Bell Pottinger arranged 'white monopoly capital' meme, which divided the country along racial fissures, which are still maintained by the ANC and the EFF to this day.
A country can simply not move forward if 85 people are murdered every day, and only 1 out of 10 of these murders are solved.
Additionally, there are no prosecutions of known criminals in the government, even if these ridiculously expensive commissions shed light on the most grotesque conduct when it comes to managing energy, water and related infrastructure projects in this country.
I do agree with the political inaction as described in this article, due to the slow motion decline of this country, which also certainly is applicable to the number one problem: crime in all strata of South Africa, but especially in the leaders and their minders.
I think the one thing most South Africans would agree on is the need to address crime in all its manifestations.
Thank you for your reply Johan.
Another critical pillar would be education, and if one were to look at the comparison to Poland, the old Eastern block countries had a decent enough education system.
In this regard successive ideological inspired governments in South Africa, have had a severe negative impact.
Educated people mean a more skilled workforce, which is in turn is more adaptable to a changing economic landscape.
Ek vind ooreenkomste met Dr. Frans Cronje se analises. Dit dui daarop dat twee van ons beste ekonomiese analiste, onafhanklik tot gevolgtrekkings kom wat in my opinie baie soortgelyk is. Dit verleen nóg meer geloofwaardigheid aan wat díé twee groot intellektueles sê oor ons huidige, ongewensde situasie en wat dit kán wees. Soms wens ek die groot krisis wil kom: nie net trillings nie, maar die werklike aardbewing. Dis tragies dat mens soms daarvoor wil wens, maar Johan se voorbeelde vanuit ander lande se ervarings dui daarop dat groot krisisse soms voordelige gevolge kan hê nadat die stof gaan lê het en NOODGEWONGE aanpassings onvermydelik raak. Dit skud leierskap wakker en dwing hulle uit hul gemaksones uit, om dieselfde as Johan te sê, maar in ander woorde. Frans Cronje wys ook daarop dat selfs relatief geringe hervormings om ekonomies groei te versnel, die ANC opsigself van groterwordende irrelevansie kan red! Verlies aan steun kan omgekeer word.
Waarlik goeie insig in die artikel: "Die prys is groei – volgehoue, breë groei wat werk skep en lewenstandaarde verhoog. Alles anders is instrumenteel."
Very good piece, Johan. Sequencing reform is critical when you don't have a lot of political capital. I am pretty sure this is the logic behind Operation Vulindlela, though perhaps not expicitly articulated. Credibility is key, and it rests on the success of the current national GNU. I hope the GNU builds enough momentum to continue into the next national goverment. BTW, I agree with the comment that reducing crime is critical to credibility, and that the restoration/strengthening of the NPA is not sufficient, though it is necessary.
Thanks, Alan.
Johan Fourie's article "Mind the Gap" touched me deeply. I would like to refer the readers to a booklet "International Association for Cognitive Development in Southern Africe - 21 years" (for an electronic copy of this booklet refer to https://share.google/tDyEulp4FFInnq5OP or just search for the booklet's title on Google). The lead article was written by Professor W. L. Rautenbach, a nuclear scientist at the University of Stellenbosch between 1972 & 1990s. Apart from nuclear science he started studying rapid development in countries like Israel & Taiwan. He found that education is a key factor to development. In the booklet Professor Rautenbach gave a concise summary of his work. Sadly our South African government did not appreciate this work. A working model was set up by him with help from the relevant industries at the Vaal Career College in the 1990s. Unfortunately it ended up being rejected & ended after 4 successful years. I hope this article by W.L. Rautenbach confirms Johan Fourie's conclusion on development.
Mrs. J. Rautenbach, wife of the deceased W.L. Rautenbach.
> The second theory is status-quo bias, from Raquel Fernandez and Dani Rodrik. Even when reform would benefit most people, rational uncertainty about who specifically will gain and who will lose produces collective resistance. People who might benefit from trade liberalisation or deregulation cannot be sure they will be among the winners, so they oppose the change. The result is paralysis even when the status quo is terrible.
Woulnd't this predict that BOTH people will mistakenly (ex ante) oppose reforms that benefit them AND mistakenly support ones that don't? On net it would seem to be a wash. An asymmetry could be present if there are people likely to benefit, but who don't have input, such as people in the future.
Not a mention of the interests of capitalist corporations and global capital markets
I assume they'd prefer a path more like Poland.
Copper alone is 50%+ of Chile's exports, and 10-15% of GDP (direct and indirect). Per capita copper export earnings alone are $3000 per person. Argentina's total mineral exports (gold, silver, lithium, etc) are $5-8 billion which comes out to ~$110-$170 per person. This is enough to explain the difference between the two, who by the way are not so different, they have very similar HDI scores.
If there is something to be learned by making such simplistic comparisons to Chile and Argentina, might I suggest an alternative for South Africa? Kick out undocumented immigrants, stop all immigration, and enforce a draconian 1-child policy so that South Africa's ample mineral resource profits can be split between fewer people. Neighboring Botswana has (or at least had) outperformed the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa because of a low population relative to high mineral resource exports (diamonds in their case.)
Without a steady supply of talented and energetic black candidates for success, nothing will happen. You can't just check a couple of boxes; you need to have real and significant talent or nothing will ever grow. Businesses don't succeed on equal opportunity criteria. They succeed on innovative ways of providing value to customers.
To me, that is the real problem that South Africa deals with. People expect success with mediocrity wielded by the person with the right skin color. But you can't fool Mother Nature.
Hi. I read several if your papers. You should do a piece on Jamaica.
https://www.ourlongwalk.com/p/jamaica-has-a-bad-debt-team
I read it. I have a piece on Jamaica for a foreign publication.