Guerilla tactics
What the Boer War teaches us about the future of weapons
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The Anglo-Boer War was the most expensive colonial war Britain would ever fight. An estimated 22,000 British and 7,000 Boer soldiers lost their lives. A further 27,000 Boer men, women, and children died in concentration camps, along with many thousands of black South Africans who fought on both sides, although these estimates are less precise. But it was not only people who suffered. According to historian Sandra Swart, 326,073 horses – two-thirds of all horses used in the war – died.
Twelve years later, the First World War erupted, claiming an estimated 9 million soldiers and 7 million civilians. Advanced mechanised technology enabled massive armies, with rail and steamship transport bringing Allied recruits from across North America, Africa, Australasia, Britain, and Europe. The unprecedented scale of killing, driven by new military technology, distinguished this war from the Boer War. It was warfare on an industrial scale.
For British generals, this shift was already visible during the Boer War. In the early phase, the British still used the cavalry lance, a medieval weapon. Apart from one successful charge at Elandslaagte, where British troops inflicted heavy losses on retreating Boers, the lance proved ineffective. The Boers’ trench warfare tactics, their use of artillery, and especially their long-range rifles, rendered the cavalry lance obsolete, forcing mounted soldiers to dismount and fight as infantry. The role of cavalry was changing, with horses increasingly used for logistics rather than combat.
Despite these lessons, the Allied forces in WWI initially deployed horses as well, with tragic consequences. New technologies such as aerial reconnaissance, machine guns, and barbed wire eliminated the traditional advantages of horses. Moreover, by 1915, it was clear that the three key components of the tank – bulletproof armour, internal combustion engines, and caterpillar tracks – would lead to a completely new form of weaponry. A French general summed it up well after the Battle of Verdun in 1916: ‘Three men and a machine gun can stop a battalion of heroes’. Industrial weaponry made the First World War shorter but far more catastrophic than previous wars.
We are currently experiencing another such shift in weapons technology. Traditional weapons like tanks and aircraft carriers are losing value, particularly as modern, cost-effective weapons make them highly vulnerable. In 2021, China tested a hypersonic missile with nuclear capability, which circled the globe before heading toward its target. These missiles, moving at five times the speed of sound, make it nearly impossible for current defence systems to intercept them. As Christopher Kirchhof, author of Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War, recently explained to Tyler Cowen: “T[]here’s no way to defend against them, so forget the fact that they’re nuclear capable – if you want to take out an aircraft carrier or a service combatant, or assassinate a world leader, a hypersonic weapon is a fantastic way to do it. Watch them very carefully because more than anything else, they will shift the balance of military power in the next five years.”
Countries like South Africa are unlikely to compete with hypersonic missiles. But drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), offer an alternative strategic option, transforming modern warfare with real-time intelligence, precise targeting, and flexible reconnaissance for rapid, data-driven battlefield responses. One need only look at the situations in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza to see how rapidly the conventional approach to warfare is changing. UAVs, are smaller, cheaper, and can be used in coordinated groups to neutralise targets. They are harder to detect by radar, and commercial models can easily be modified for use as kamikaze weapons. A major advantage is, of course, that no pilots’ lives are put at risk.
Kirchhof agrees:
It’s certainly the next generation of military technology. [J]ust last month in Ukraine, the US military has had to ask the Ukrainians to remove from the front all 31 of the M1A1 Abrams battle tanks that we gave the Ukrainians because a quarter of them had been destroyed by Russian kamikaze drones. So, not only is it the ascendancy of an era of drone warfare, but it’s probably the end of man-mechanized warfare, as well, on land. We can also talk about similarly epic changes at sea, in the air, and in space.
Importantly, unlike hypersonic missiles, drones can be built in small workshops. After visiting Ukraine’s front lines, he observed that Ukrainian-made drones dominate the battlefield, as local teams can modify algorithms overnight in small workshops across the country to counter rapidly changing Russian electronic warfare tactics. This adaptability enables drones to apply guerrilla tactics – small-scale, irregular, and flexible combat strategies that disrupt larger, conventional forces. With nearly 300 companies in Ukraine innovating faster than Western military firms, these UAVs exemplify the power of swift, low-cost adaptability in modern warfare.
How prepared is South Africa for this transformation in military technology? That’s what I asked Ivan Henrico, senior lecturer in Military Geography at Stellenbosch University’s Faculty of Military Science:
Our defence force is increasingly aware of the need to modernise, but we struggle with limited funding and much of the current budget is not optimally used. Although there has recently been an increase in the defence budget, it’s not always focused on the right areas. Besides technological upgrades, we also face maintenance issues, a shortage of qualified personnel, and training that’s lagging behind.
These challenges are compounded by the SANDF's expanded mandate, which now also supports internal security in the country. As Theo Neethling of the University of the Free State highlighted in a recent article, these internal security roles – from border patrols to combatting organised crime – have placed immense pressure on the SANDF, often without adequate funding and equipment.1 There is an increasing expectation for the SANDF to function as an all-encompassing security service, which complicates its primary role of defending national sovereignty.
Henrico believes that South Africa has the potential to establish a stronger defence position through strategic investments in technologies like drones and cybersecurity. ‘We may never compete on the same level as the major powers, but by focusing on deterrence and intelligence, we can improve our defence without engaging directly in large-scale conflict.’
It is reassuring, for example, that the SANDF already possesses and deploys drones. As Elizabeth Allworth explains in her 2021 Master’s thesis, SANDF UAVs monitor vast, hard-to-reach areas, helping to detect illegal activities like smuggling and unlawful immigration.2 They are also used in collaboration with other government departments for anti-poaching operations, particularly in protected reserves, to safeguard wildlife from illegal hunting, and for disaster management and humanitarian aid, enabling rapid response in emergencies.
It is also encouraging that several local manufacturers compete in this market segment. The Milkor 380, for example, is a versatile UAV designed for surveillance, reconnaissance, and operational engagement, equipped with advanced sensors for long-range missions and up to 30 hours of continuous flight. Built by a team of 350 professionals at Milkor’s facility in Cape Town, it features top-tier optical technology, including HD, infrared cameras and maritime radar.
If one were forced to find a silver lining in South Africa’s infamous arms deal of the late 1990s/early 2000s, it would be that these costly, mostly non-operational submarines and fighter jets are destined to become the horses of the 21st century. In future warfare, drones and their software that enable guerrilla tactics, rather than outdated, expensive machinery utilised in conventional combat, will be key to protecting a country’s citizens.
This has implications for recruiting the soldiers of the future too. In a 2020 article, Kris Inwood, Martine Mariotti, and I wrote that one outcome of the technological changes during the First World War was that shorter soldiers became just as effective as taller ones; height is helpful when riding a horse and fighting with a lance but of little advantage when operating a machine gun.3
The soldier of the 21st century will look vastly different than the soldier of the 20th. Perhaps the best thing the SANDF can do to stay within their limited budget and fulfil its expanded mandate is to invest in high-school hackathons and drone-flying competitions.
An edited version of this post appeared (in Afrikaans) in Rapport on 11 November 2024. The images were created using Midjourney v6.
Neethling, T., 2024. The SANDF after 30 years: Walking the tightrope between external and internal operations on a shoestring budget. Strategic Review for Southern Africa, Vol. 46, No. 1.
Allworth, E.M., 2021. The South African Air Force (SAAF), Unmanned Aircraft Systems and National Security: An Exploratory Study. Stellenbosch University.
Fourie, J., Inwood, K. and Mariotti, M., 2020. Military technology and sample selection bias. Social Science History, 44(3), pp.485-500.