Historians are good forecasters. They are good not because they possess some original insight about the future, but because they are smart in their choice of time horizon: instead of speculating about life over the next few months, they prefer to predict the distant future. It buys them more degrees of freedom and less oversight. This is because humans tend to overestimate change in the short but vastly underestimate change in the long run. The historian’s way is the only way to forecast without fear of failure.
This is the world of 2030
This is the world of 2030
This is the world of 2030
Historians are good forecasters. They are good not because they possess some original insight about the future, but because they are smart in their choice of time horizon: instead of speculating about life over the next few months, they prefer to predict the distant future. It buys them more degrees of freedom and less oversight. This is because humans tend to overestimate change in the short but vastly underestimate change in the long run. The historian’s way is the only way to forecast without fear of failure.