'History, unlike spreadsheets, doesn’t always give you the answer that you want'

BUSINESS INTELLECTUAL: I interview Jannie Durand about his father, what he's looking for in recruits, state capacity, the value of business history and who he'd invite for dinner...

Welcome to the third interview in a new series on Our Long Walk, my blog discussing the past, present and future of South Africa. Here, I'll be talking with South African business leaders to gain their perspectives on the lessons from history. Previous interviews were with André de Ruyter and Herman Mashaba. Please consider a paid subscription to access the full interview and all of my twice-weekly content, including columns, guest essays, and summaries of the latest relevant research.

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Jannie Durand is CEO/Executive Director at Remgro Ltd.

1. As an investor, you often have to try to predict the future, but how important would you say the past is to your life? Has your understanding of history informed decisions you’ve made, your understanding of the present, and/or your vision for the future?

I had a great history teacher at school, and he instilled in me a passion for the study of the past. Growing up, my father always talked to us about World War II and the Anglo-Boer War, as well as where we came from as a family because we did not follow a normal path as other Afrikaner families did. From these experiences, I learned that history does not predict the future. However, it gives you a context to draw from. That context is what Roubini refers to in his book Megathreats as ‘history rhyming’ because people can be predictable in how they act. In business, more often than not, that gut feel/instinctive decision one makes is informed by past experiences because you’ve seen that movie before. And that is the value of history.

2. Your father is described as having been on ‘the right side of history’ for his outspoken opposition to apartheid. In what ways does his legacy and the part he played in South African history shape your vision for South Africa?

I am proud of my father’s service to our country, and the legacy he has left behind. Through his experiences, he inspired the same spirit of service in us [his children] and gave us moral guidance, especially against injustice. That is why I also participate in initiatives that seek to help advance our country. One such initiative which I am involved with, alongside other business leaders, is Business for South Africa (B4SA), which assists with capacitating state institutions with resources to help make them more efficient, thereby advancing and contributing towards the vision of South Africa. My wife and I also strive to teach our children about their grandfather’s legacy.

3. When I read your father’s 1970 book, I was struck not so much by his research question – how to evangelise to an increasingly urban black population – but by his methodology: he administered a survey of black, urban workers in Port Elizabeth, accounting for the various factors that affect their spirituality. Such a data-driven approach was not only unheard of back then, but few theologians today would consider employing similar techniques. Could you share how Remgro has embraced a data-driven approach, potentially even before it became standard practice in the industry?

Firstly, when my father worked in Kwa Zakhele New Brighton, he was fluent in isiXhosa and made lifelong friends within the community. This, too, was unheard of at the time, given the Group Areas Act. Although he had not trained in mathematics, he had a natural feel for it. Looking back, I think the combination of his love for numbers with his passion for justice came naturally to him. He also taught himself finance, which, years later, resulted in him eventually ensuring the successful expansion of the University of the Western Cape’s (UWC) campus.

At Remgro, we do extensive research before doing transactions. That said, we can also be wrong, even in data-driven approaches. One such example was the Vodacom transaction. In our research, we looked at the market and thought we would have about 1 million subscribers, only to realise that we were wrong in our research/data-led approach because we had not predicted things like Prepaid. That was a teachable moment for us; that data-driven approaches can also get things completely wrong, albeit positively, in the success of the then Vodacom transaction. Black Swan events are also complicated to capture adequately in your risk and data models.

4. Statistics seem to be a Durand family tradition – in 2022, your son, Jean Durand, received Stellenbosch University’s coveted Chancellor’s Medal for his Mathematical Statistics degree with a focal area in Data Science. Considering this family legacy, when identifying and nurturing talent at Remgro, what specific skills or qualities do you prioritise during the recruitment process? What advice would you offer to young people aspiring to build a career in today’s business environment?

Firstly, everyone we recruit is already, in some way, a high achiever with demonstrated qualities we look for. Our Chairman, Mr. Johann Rupert, often refers to three traits: empathy, curiosity, and emotional intelligence. We consider that as well. Added to values. Secondly, I always tell young people never to try to impress others by being someone they are not. They must have confidence in their individual abilities. Respect the opportunities and chances you are afforded. Make sure you do what you love, and remember never to take yourself too seriously. Have fun in your job.

5. Several years ago, in an address to the Afrikaanse Handelsinstituut, you warned that South Africa could quickly become the 21st-century equivalent of 20th-century Argentina – institutionally weak, corrupt, and politically ineffective. Do you think the Argentinian example remains relevant to the state South Africa finds itself in today? And is there perhaps hope in the story of Argentina after the election of Javier Milei as president?

Unfortunately, I have been largely proven right, and I am not happy about that. I am aware of what’s unfolding in Argentina following President Milei’s appointment. For the immediate moment, like everyone else who is following the unfolding, it’s too soon to make predictions. Even so, I am an optimist.

Why do we not learn from the past? We tend to make the same mistakes over and over again. Albert Einstein captured it very eloquently! ‘Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.’ Therefore, learn from the past. Put it into your context and/or specific circumstances, then develop sustainable models. A data-driven approach, as we discussed earlier.