Data and the two lessons from history

My speech at the Bureau of Economic Research conference last week

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The Bureau for Economic Research (BER), established in 1944, is a renowned economic research institute at Stellenbosch University, known for its independent economic research, surveys and forecasting. On Wednesday, 31 July, I gave the opening keynote at the BER’s annual conference celebrating its 80th anniversary.

We are extraordinarily fortunate to live at the best time in history.

Consider the following graph. It shows the income per capita for six countries – England, Indonesia, Mexico, the Netherlands and South Africa – from 1650 to today. Two things should be obvious. First, for most of our history, the average human in almost every society lived just above subsistence. Look at those flat per capita lines until around 1800. They maintain their flatness if you draw them back to 1000 AD, or 0, or 10,000 BCE.